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Maximal growth rate of the ascending phase of a sunspot cycle for predicting its amplitude  

Tatiana Podladchikova   Submitted: 2022-06-28 07:32

Forecasting the solar cycle amplitude is important for a better understanding of the solar dynamo as well as for many space weather applications. We demonstrated a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in the ascending phase of a cycle and the subsequent cycle amplitude on the basis of four data sets of solar activity indices: total sunspot numbers, hemispheric sunspot numbers from the new catalogue from 1874 onwards, total sunspot areas, and hemispheric sunspot areas. For all the data sets, a linear regression based on the maximal growth rate precursor shows a significant correlation. Validation of predictions for cycles 1-24 shows high correlations between the true and predicted cycle amplitudes reaching r = 0.93 for the total sunspot numbers. The lead time of the predictions varies from 2 to 49 months, with a mean value of 21 months. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the sum of maximal growth rate indicators determined separately for the north and the south hemispheric sunspot numbers provides more accurate predictions than that using total sunspot numbers. The advantages reach 27% and 11% on average in terms of rms and correlation coefficient, respectively. The superior performance is also confirmed with hemispheric sunspot areas with respect to total sunspot areas. The maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in the ascending phase of a solar cycle serves as a reliable precursor of the subsequent cycle amplitude. Furthermore, our findings provide a strong foundation for supporting regular monitoring, recording, and predictions of solar activity with hemispheric sunspot data, which capture the asymmetric behaviour of the solar activity and solar magnetic field and enhance solar cycle prediction methods.

Authors: Tatiana Podladchikova, Shantanu Jain, Astrid M. Veronig, Olga Sutyrina, Mateja Dumbovic, Frederic Clette, Werner Poetzi
Projects: None

Publication Status: accepted to Astronomy & Astrophysics
Last Modified: 2022-06-29 13:19
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Medium-term predictions of F10.7 and F30 cm solar radio flux with the adaptive Kalman filter  

Tatiana Podladchikova   Submitted: 2021-03-18 04:23

The solar radio flux at F10.7 cm and F30 cm is required by most models characterizing the state of the Earth's upper atmosphere, such as the thermosphere and ionosphere to specify satellite orbits, re-entry services, collision avoidance maneuvers and modeling of space debris evolution. We develop a method called RESONANCE ("Radio Emissions from the Sun: ONline ANalytical Computer-aided Estimator") for the prediction of the 13-month smoothed monthly mean F10.7 and F30 indices 1-24 months ahead. The prediction algorithm includes three steps. First, we apply a 13-month optimized running mean technique to effectively reduce the noise in the radio flux data. Second, we provide initial predictions of the F10.7 and F30 indices using the McNish-Lincoln method. Finally, we improve these initial predictions by developing an adaptive Kalman filter with the error statistics identification. The root-mean-square-error of predictions with lead times from 1 to 24 months is 5-27 sfu for the F10.7 and 3-16 sfu for F30 index, which statistically outperforms current algorithms in use. The proposed approach based on Kalman filter is universal and can be applied to improve the initial predictions of a process under study provided by any other forecasting method. Furthermore, we present a systematic evaluation of re-entry forecast as an application to test the performance of F10.7 predictions on past ESA re-entry campaigns for payloads, rocket bodies, and space debris that re-entered from June 2006 to June 2019. The test results demonstrate that the predictions obtained by RESONANCE in general also lead to improvements in the forecasts of re-entry epochs.

Authors: Elena Petrova, Tatiana Podladchikova, Astrid M. Veronig, Stijn Lemmens, Benjamin Bastida Virgili, Tim Flohrer
Projects: None

Publication Status: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series
Last Modified: 2021-03-18 07:36
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Maximal growth rate of the ascending phase of a sunspot cycle for predicting its amplitude
Medium-term predictions of F10.7 and F30 cm solar radio flux with the adaptive Kalman filter

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