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Forecasting F10.7 with solar magnetic flux transport modeling  

Carl Henney   Submitted: 2015-01-30 09:53

A new method is presented here to forecast the solar 10.7 cm (2.8 GHz) radio flux, abbreviated F10.7, utilizing advanced predictions of the global solar magnetic field generated by a flux transport model. Using indices derived from the absolute value of the solar magnetic field, we find good correlation between the observed photospheric magnetic activity and the observed F10.7 values. Comparing magnetogram data observed within 6 hours of the F10.7 measurements during the years 1993 through 2010, the Spearman correlation coefficient, r_s, for an empirical model of F10.7 is found to be 0.98. In addition, we find little change in the empirical model coefficients and correlations between the first and second 9 year intervals of the 18 year period investigated. By evolving solar magnetic synoptic maps forward 1?7 days, this new method provides a realistic estimation of the Earth-side solar magnetic field distribution used to forecast F10.7. Spearman correlation values of approximately 0.97, 0.95, and 0.93 are found for 1 day, 3 day, and 7 day forecasts, respectively. The method presented here can be expanded to forecast other space weather parameters, e.g., total solar irradiance and extreme ultraviolet flux. In addition, near-term improvements to the F10.7 forecasting method, e.g., including far-side magnetic data with solar magnetic flux transport, are discussed.

Authors: C. J. Henney, W. A. Toussaint, S. M. White, and C. N. Arge
Projects: None

Publication Status: published Feb 2012
Last Modified: 2015-02-03 10:59
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SOLIS Vector Spectromagnetograph: Status and Science  

Carl Henney   Submitted: 2008-01-16 17:05

The Vector Spectromagnetograph (VSM) instrument has been recording photospheric and chromospheric magnetograms daily since August 2003. Full-disk photospheric vector magnetograms are observed at least weekly and, since November 2006, area-scans of active regions daily. Quick-look vector magnetic images, plus X3D and FITS formated files, are now publicly available daily. In the near future, Milne-Eddington inversion parameter data will also be available and a typical observing day will include three full-disk photospheric vector magnetograms. Besides full-disk observations, the VSM is capable of high temporal cadence area-scans of both the photosphere and chromosphere. Carrington rotation and daily synoptic maps are also available from the photospheric magnetograms and coronal hole estimate images.

Authors: C. J. Henney, C. U. Keller, J. W. Harvey, M. K. Georgoulis, N. L. Hadder, A. A. Norton, N.-E. Raouafi, R. M. Toussaint
Projects:

Publication Status: Published in Solar Polarimetry Workshop 5, PASP
Last Modified: 2015-02-03 10:59
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SOLIS-VSM Solar Vector Magnetograms  

Carl Henney   Submitted: 2007-01-03 13:49

The Vector SpectroMagnetograph (VSM) instrument has recorded full-disk photospheric vector magnetograms weekly since August 2003 as part of the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) project. After the full deployment of the VSM data processing system, a typical observing day will include three Fe I 630.2 nm full-disk photospheric vector magnetograms, one full-disk photospheric and three Ca II 854.2 nm chromospheric longitudinal magnetograms, along with three He I 1083 nm spectroheliograms. The photospheric vector magnetograms will be available over the Internet in two stages: first, as a quick-look product within minutes of data acquisition, and then as a Milne-Eddington inversion product within a day of each observation.

Authors: Henney, C. J., Keller, C. U., and Harvey, J. W.
Projects: None

Publication Status: in press, ASP Conf Series, vol 358
Last Modified: 2007-01-04 10:16
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Forecasting F10.7 with solar magnetic flux transport modeling
SOLIS Vector Spectromagnetograph: Status and Science
SOLIS-VSM Solar Vector Magnetograms

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