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Relationships Between Characteristics of the Line-of-Sight Magnetic Field and Solar Flare Forecasts  

Viacheslav Sadykov   Submitted: 2017-04-12 08:57

Studying connection between solar flares and properties of magnetic field in active regions is very important for understanding the flare physics and developing space weather forecasts. In this work, we analyze relationship between the flare X-ray peak flux from the GOES satellite, and characteristics of the line-of-sight (LOS) magnetograms obtained by the SDO/HMI instrument during the period of April, 2010 - June, 2016. We try to answer two questions: 1) What characteristics of the LOS magnetic field are most important for the flare initiation and magnitude? 2) Is it possible to construct a reliable forecast of >=M1.0 and >=X1.0 class flares based only on the LOS magnetic field characteristics? To answer these questions, we apply a Polarity Inversion Line (PIL) detection algorithm, and derive various properties of the PIL and the corresponding Active Regions (AR). The importance of these properties for flare forecasting is determined by their ability to separate flaring cases from non-flaring, and their Fisher ranking score. It is found that the PIL characteristics are of special importance for the forecasts of both >=M1.0 and >=X1.0 flares, while the global AR characteristics become comparably discriminative only for >=X1.0 flares. We use the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier and train it on the six characteristics of the most importance for each case. The obtained True Skill Statistics (TSS) values of 0.70 for >=M1.0 flares and 0.64 for >=X1.0 flares are better than the currently-known expert-based predictions. Therefore, the results confirm the importance of the LOS magnetic field data and, in particular, the PIL region characteristics for flare forecasts.

Authors: Viacheslav M Sadykov, Alexander G Kosovichev
Projects: GOES X-rays,SDO-HMI

Publication Status: Submitted to the ApJ
Last Modified: 2017-04-12 17:38
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Interactive Multi-Instrument Database of Solar Flares  

Viacheslav Sadykov   Submitted: 2017-02-15 15:42

Solar flares represent a complicated physical phenomenon observed in a broad range of the electromagnetic spectrum, from radiowaves to gamma-rays. For a complete understanding of the flares it is necessary to perform a combined multi-wavelength analysis using observations from many satellites and ground-based observatories. For efficient data search, integration of different flare lists and representation of observational data, we have developed the Interactive Multi-Instrument Database of Solar Flares (https://solarflare.njit.edu/). The web database if fully functional and allows the user to search for uniquely-identified flare events based on their physical descriptors and availability of observations of a particular set of instruments. Currently the data from three primary flare lists (GOES, RHESSI and HEK) and a variety of other event catalogs (Hinode, Fermi GBM, Konus-Wind, OVSA flare catalogs, CACTus CME catalog, Filament eruption catalog) and observing logs (IRIS and Nobeyama coverage), are integrated, and an additional set of physical descriptors (temperature and emission measure) is provided along with observing summary, data links and multi-wavelength light curves for each flare event since January, 2002. We think that the created instrument will allow researchers significantly speed up the search of events of interest for statistical and case studies.

Authors: Viacheslav M Sadykov, Rishabh Gupta, Alexander G Kosovichev, Vincent Oria, Gelu M Nita
Projects: Other

Publication Status: Submitted to Solar Physics journal
Last Modified: 2017-02-16 08:47
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Relationships Between Characteristics of the Line-of-Sight Magnetic Field and Solar Flare Forecasts
Interactive Multi-Instrument Database of Solar Flares

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