E-Print Archive

There are 4036 abstracts currently viewable.


Search:

Advanced Search
Options
Main Page Add New E-Print Submitter
Information
Feedback
News Help/FAQ About Preferences
Manage Key Phrase
Notification
Toward Reliable Benchmarking of Solar Flare Forecasting Methods View all abstracts by submitter

D. Shaun Bloomfield   Submitted: 2012-02-27 09:04

Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclearhow the probability of producing a flare of a given magnitude relatesto the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we useGeostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X-ray flares andMcIntosh group classifications from solar cycles 21 and 22 tocalculate average flare rates for each McIntosh class and use these todetermine Poisson probabilities for different flare magnitudes.Forecast verification measures are studied to find optimum thresholdsto convert Poisson flare probabilities into yes/no predictions ofcycle 23 flares. A case is presented to adopt the true skill statistic(TSS) as a standard for forecast comparison over the commonly usedHeidke skill score (HSS). In predicting flares over 24 hr, the maximumvalues of TSS achieved are 0.44 (C-class), 0.53 (M-class), 0.74(X-class), 0.54 (>=M1.0), and 0.46 (>=C1.0). The maximum values of HSSare 0.38 (C-class), 0.27 (M-class), 0.14 (X-class), 0.28 (>=M1.0), and0.41 (>=C1.0). These show that Poisson probabilities performcomparably to some more complex prediction systems, but the overallinaccuracy highlights the problem with using average values torepresent flaring rate distributions.

Authors: D. Shaun Bloomfield, Paul A. Higgins, R. T. James McAteer, and Peter T. Gallagher
Projects: None

Publication Status: Published in ApJL
Last Modified: 2012-02-29 08:25
Go to main E-Print page  On the physical meaning of n-distributions in solar flares  Break up of returning plasma after the 7 June 2011 filament eruption by Rayleigh-Taylor instabilities  Edit Entry  Download Preprint  Submitter's Homepage Delete Entry 

Key
Go to main E-Print pageGo to main E-Print page.
Previous AbstractPrevious Abstract.
Next AbstractNext Abstract.
Download PreprintDownload Preprint.
Submitter's HomepageSubmitters Homepage.
Edit EntryEdit Entry.
View All Abstracts By SubmitterView all abstracts by submitter.
Delete AbstractDelete abstract.

Latest Entries
Flare reconnection-driven magnetic field and Lorentz force variations at the Sun's surface
Why Does the Solar Corona Abnormally Rotate Faster Than the Photosphere?
Impacts On Proton Fluxes Observed During Different Interplanetary Conditions
Coronal Loop Seismology Using Standing Kink Oscillations With a Lookup Table
Data-Optimized Coronal Field Model: I. Proof of Concept
Coronal Bright Points
Difference of source regions between fast and slow coronal mass ejections
Invited Review: Signatures of Magnetic Flux Ropes in the Low Solar Atmosphere Observed in High Resolution
Do Kepler superflare stars really include slowly-rotating Sun-like stars ? - Results using APO 3.5m telescope spectroscopic observations and Gaia-DR2 data -
Magnetically Induced Current Piston for Generating Extreme-ultraviolet Fronts in the Solar Corona
Magnetic Field Dynamics and Varying Plasma Emission in Large-scale Coronal Loops
Nonlinear Evolution of Ion Kinetic Instabilities in the Solar Wind
What determines the X-ray intensity and duration of a solar flare?
Fast Magnetoacoustic Wave Trains with Time-dependent Drivers
Three-dimensional reconstruction of CME-driven shock-streamer interaction from radio observations: a different take on the diagnostics of coronal magnetic fields
The soft X-ray spectrometer polarimeter SolpeX
Variable emission mechanism of a Type IV radio burst
Inference of magnetic field strength and density from damped transverse coronal waves
Frequency-Distance Structure of Solar Radio Sources Observed by LOFAR
The birth of a coronal mass ejection

Related Pages
MSU Solar Physics.
Max Millennium Science Mail Archive.
Max Millennium Message of the Day Mail Archive.
Max Millennium Flare Catalog

Archive Maintainer
Alisdair Davey



© 2003 Solar Physics Group - Montana State University