E-Print Archive

There are 4035 abstracts currently viewable.


Advanced Search
Main Page Add New E-Print Submitter
News Help/FAQ About Preferences
Manage Key Phrase
Forecasting the Maxima of Solar Cycle 24 with Coronal Fe XIV Emission View all abstracts by submitter

Richard Altrock   Submitted: 2012-09-12 12:42

The onset of the ''Rush to the Poles'' of polar crown prominences and their associated coronal emission is a harbinger of solar maximum. Altrock (Solar Phys. 216, 343, 2003) showed that the ''Rush'' was well-observed in the Fe XIV corona at the Sacramento Peak site of the National Solar Observatory prior to the maxima of Cycles 21 to 23. The data show that solar maximum in those cycles occurred when the center line of the Rush reached a critical latitude of 76? ? 2?. Furthermore, in the previous three cycles solar maximum occurred when the number of Fe XIV emission regions per day > 0.19 (averaged over 365 days and both hemispheres) first reached latitudes 20? ? 1.7?. Applying the above conclusions to Cycle 24 is difficult due to the unusual nature of this cycle. Cycle 24 displays an intermittent Rush that is only well-defined in the northern hemisphere. In 2009 an initial slope of 4.6?year^-1 was found in the north, compared to an average of 9.4 ? 1.7 ? year^-1 in the previous cycles. An early fit to the Rush would have reached 76? at 2014.6. However, in 2010 the slope increased to 7.5?year^-1 (an increase did not occur in the previous three cycles). Extending that rate to 76? ? 2? indicates that the solar maximum smoothed sunspot number in the northern hemisphere already occurred at 2011.6 ? 0.3. In the southern hemisphere the Rush to the Poles, if it exists, is very poorly defined. A linear fit to several maxima would reach 76? in the south at 2014.2. In 1999, persistent Fe XIV coronal emission known as the ''extended solar cycle'' appeared near 70? in the north and began migrating towards the equator at a rate 40% slower than the previous two solar cycles. However, in 2009 and 2010 an acceleration occurred. Currently the greatest number of emission regions is at 21? in the north and 24? in the south. This indicates that solar maximum is occurring now in the north but not yet in the south.

Authors: Richard C. Altrock
Projects: National Solar Observatory (Sac Peak)

Publication Status: submitted to Solar Physics
Last Modified: 2012-09-13 10:14
Go to main E-Print page  Can solar wind viscous drag account for CME deceleration?  The Extended Solar Cycle Tracked High into the Corona  Edit Entry  Download Preprint  Submitter's Homepage Delete Entry 

Go to main E-Print pageGo to main E-Print page.
Previous AbstractPrevious Abstract.
Next AbstractNext Abstract.
Download PreprintDownload Preprint.
Submitter's HomepageSubmitters Homepage.
Edit EntryEdit Entry.
View All Abstracts By SubmitterView all abstracts by submitter.
Delete AbstractDelete abstract.

Latest Entries
Why Does the Solar Corona Abnormally Rotate Faster Than the Photosphere?
Impacts On Proton Fluxes Observed During Different Interplanetary Conditions
Coronal Loop Seismology Using Standing Kink Oscillations With a Lookup Table
Data-Optimized Coronal Field Model: I. Proof of Concept
Coronal Bright Points
Difference of source regions between fast and slow coronal mass ejections
Invited Review: Signatures of Magnetic Flux Ropes in the Low Solar Atmosphere Observed in High Resolution
Do Kepler superflare stars really include slowly-rotating Sun-like stars ? - Results using APO 3.5m telescope spectroscopic observations and Gaia-DR2 data -
Magnetically Induced Current Piston for Generating Extreme-ultraviolet Fronts in the Solar Corona
Magnetic Field Dynamics and Varying Plasma Emission in Large-scale Coronal Loops
Nonlinear Evolution of Ion Kinetic Instabilities in the Solar Wind
What determines the X-ray intensity and duration of a solar flare?
Fast Magnetoacoustic Wave Trains with Time-dependent Drivers
Three-dimensional reconstruction of CME-driven shock-streamer interaction from radio observations: a different take on the diagnostics of coronal magnetic fields
The soft X-ray spectrometer polarimeter SolpeX
Variable emission mechanism of a Type IV radio burst
Inference of magnetic field strength and density from damped transverse coronal waves
Frequency-Distance Structure of Solar Radio Sources Observed by LOFAR
The birth of a coronal mass ejection
Properties of slow magnetoacoustic oscillations of solar coronal loops by multi-instrumental observations

Related Pages
MSU Solar Physics.
Max Millennium Science Mail Archive.
Max Millennium Message of the Day Mail Archive.
Max Millennium Flare Catalog

Archive Maintainer
Alisdair Davey

© 2003 Solar Physics Group - Montana State University