E-Print Archive

There are 4099 abstracts currently viewable.


Search:

Advanced Search
Options
Main Page Add New E-Print Submitter
Information
Feedback
News Help/FAQ About Preferences
Manage Key Phrase
Notification
Ensemble modeling of CMEs using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model View all abstracts by submitter

M. Leila Mays   Submitted: 2015-04-20 09:48

Ensemble modeling of CMEs provides a probabilistic forecast of CME arrival time which includes an estimation of arrival time uncertainty from the spread and distribution of predictions and forecast confidence in the likelihood of CME arrival. The real-time ensemble modeling of CME propagation uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the CCMC and executed in real-time. The current implementation evaluates the sensitivity of WSA-ENLIL+Cone model simulations of CME propagation to initial CME parameters. We discuss the results of real-time ensemble simulations for a total of 35 CME events between January 2013 - July 2014. For the 17 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, the mean absolute arrival time prediction error was 12.3 hours, which is comparable to the errors reported in other studies. For predictions of CME arrival at Earth the correct rejection rate is 62% and the false-alarm rate is 38%. The arrival time was within the range of the ensemble arrival predictions for 8 out of 17 events. The Brier Score for CME arrival predictions is 0.15 (where 1 is a perfect forecast), indicating that on average, the predicted likelihood of CME arrival is fairly accurate. The reliability of ensemble CME arrival predictions is heavily dependent on the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the median and spread. Preliminary analysis of the probabilistic forecasts suggests undervariability, indicating that these ensembles do not sample a wide enough spread in CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters, the accuracy of the solar wind background derived from coronal maps, or other model limitations. Finally, predictions of the Kp geomagnetic index differ from observed values by less than one for 11 out of 17 of the ensembles and Kp prediction errors computed from the mean predicted Kp show a mean absolute error of 1.3.

Authors: M. L. Mays, A. Taktakishvili, A. A. Pulkkinen, D. Odstrcil, P. J. MacNeice, L. Rastaetter, J. A. LaSota, Y. Zheng, M. M. Kuznetsova
Projects: ACE,SDO-AIA,SoHO-LASCO,STEREO,Wind

Publication Status: Accepted
Last Modified: 2015-04-21 10:47
Go to main E-Print page  Why Is the Great Solar Active Region 12192 Flare-Rich But CME-Poor?  Fast single-dish scans of the Sun using ALMA  Edit Entry  Download Preprint  Submitter's Homepage Delete Entry 

Key
Go to main E-Print pageGo to main E-Print page.
Previous AbstractPrevious Abstract.
Next AbstractNext Abstract.
Download PreprintDownload Preprint.
Submitter's HomepageSubmitters Homepage.
Edit EntryEdit Entry.
View All Abstracts By SubmitterView all abstracts by submitter.
Delete AbstractDelete abstract.

Latest Entries
On the Origin of Solar Torsional Oscillations and Extended Solar Cycle
What Sets the Magnetic Field Strength and Cycle Period in Solar-type Stars?
Stereoscopic Observations of an Erupting Mini-filament Driven Two-Sided-Loop Jet and the Applications for Diagnosing Filament Magnetic field
Dynamic Processes of the Moreton Wave on 2014 March 29
Shock Heating Energy of Umbral Flashes Measured with Integral Field Unit Spectroscopy
Stealth Coronal Mass Ejections from Active Regions
Coronal Loop Scaling Laws for Various Forms of Parallel Heat Conduction
Structure of the transition region and the low corona from TRACE and SDO observations near the limb
Quantifying the relationship between Moreton-Ramsey waves and "EIT waves" using observations of 4 homologous wave events
Formation of quasi-periodic slow magnetoacoustic wave trains by the heating/cooling misbalance
Fundamental Transverse Vibrations of the Active Region Solar Corona
Damping of slow magnetoacoustic oscillations by the misbalance between heating and cooling processes in the solar corona
Magnetic helicity and eruptivity in active region 12673
Impulsive coronal heating from large-scale magnetic rearrangements: from IRIS to SDO/AIA
Probing the effect of cadence on the estimates of photospheric energy and helicity injections in eruptive active region NOAA AR 11158
The birth of a coronal mass ejection
Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale
Chromospheric cannonballs on the Sun
Magnetic Helicity from Multipolar Regions on the Solar Surface
Exoplanet predictions based on harmonic orbit resonances

Related Pages
MSU Solar Physics.
Max Millennium Science Mail Archive.
Max Millennium Message of the Day Mail Archive.
Max Millennium Flare Catalog

Archive Maintainer
Alisdair Davey



© 2003 Solar Physics Group - Montana State University