E-Print Archive

There are 4554 abstracts currently viewable.


Search:

Advanced Search
Options
Main Page Add New E-Print Submitter
Information
Feedback
News Help/FAQ About Preferences
Manage Key Phrase
Notification
On flare predictability based on sunspot group evolution View all abstracts by submitter

Marianna Korsos   Submitted: 2015-04-27 05:51

The forecast method introduced by Korsos et al.(2014) is generalised from the horizontal magnetic gradient (GM), defined between two opposite polarity spots, to all spots within an appropriately defined region close to the magnetic neutral line of an active region. This novel approach is not limited to searching for the largest GM of two single spots as in previous methods. Instead, the pre-flare conditions of the evolution of spot groups is captured by the introduction of the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient, or WGM. This new proxy enables the potential of forecasting flares stronger than M5. The improved capability includes (i) the prediction of flare onset time and (ii) an assessment whether a flare is followed by another event within about 18 hours. The prediction of onset time is found to be more accurate here. A linear relationship is established between the duration of converging motion and the time elapsed from the moment of closest position to that of the flare onset of opposite polarity spot groups. The other promising relationship is between the maximum of the WGM prior to flaring and the value of WGM at the moment of the initial flare onset in the case of multiple flaring. We found that when the WGM decreases by about 54%, then there is no second flare. If, however, when the WGM decreases less than 42%, then there will be likely a follow-up flare stronger than M5. This new capability may be useful for an automated flare prediction tool.

Authors: Marianna Korsos, Andras Ludmány, Robert Erdelyi, Tunde Baranyi
Projects: None

Publication Status: published
Last Modified: 2015-04-28 10:02
Go to main E-Print page  Active Region Coronal Rain Event Observed by the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph on the NST  How are Forbush decreases related with interplanetary magnetic field enhancements ?  Edit Entry  Download Preprint  Submitter's Homepage Delete Entry 

Key
Go to main E-Print pageGo to main E-Print page.
Previous AbstractPrevious Abstract.
Next AbstractNext Abstract.
Download PreprintDownload Preprint.
Submitter's HomepageSubmitters Homepage.
Edit EntryEdit Entry.
View All Abstracts By SubmitterView all abstracts by submitter.
Delete AbstractDelete abstract.

Latest Entries
Magnetohydrodynamics Instabilities of Double Magnetic Bands in a Shallow-water Tachocline Model: I Cross-equatorial Interactions of Bands
Stability of slow magnetoacoustic and entropy waves in the solar coronal plasma with thermal misbalance
The chromosphere underneath a Coronal Bright Point
Characterising fast-time variations in the hard X-ray time profiles of solar flares using Solar Orbiter's STIX
The quiet sun at mm wavelengths as seen by ALMA
Explosive Events in the Quiet Sun Near and Beyond the Solar Limb Observed with the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS)
Multi-stage reconnection powering a solar coronal jet
A Statistical Analysis of Magnetic Field Changes in the Photosphere during Solar Flares Using High-cadence Vector Magnetograms and Their Association with Flare Ribbons
Numerical Study on Excitation of Turbulence and Oscillation in Above-the-loop-top Region of a Solar Flare
Oscillatory reconnection as a plasma diagnostic in the solar corona
The independence of oscillatory reconnection periodicity from the initial pulse
Oscillatory Reconnection of a 2D X-point in a hot coronal plasma
Formation Of The Lyman Continuum During Solar Flares
MHD simulation of Solar Eruption from Active Region 11429 Driven by Photospheric Velocity Field
Unfolding Drift Effects for Cosmic Rays over the Period of the Sun's Magnetic Field Reversal
Problems in Observation and Identification of Torsional Waves in the Lower Solar Atmosphere
Solar Orbiter and SDO Observations, and Bifrost MHD Simulations of Small-scale Coronal Jets
Dominance of Bursty over Steady Heating of the 48 MK Coronal Plasma in a Solar Active Region: Quantification Using Maps of Minimum, Maximum, and Average Brightness
Solar flare hard X-rays from the anchor points of an eruptive filament
Plasmoids, Flows, and Jets During Magnetic Reconnection in a Failed Solar Eruption

Related Pages
MSU Solar Physics.
Max Millennium Science Mail Archive.
Max Millennium Message of the Day Mail Archive.
Max Millennium Flare Catalog

Archive Maintainer
Alisdair Davey



© 2000-2020 Solar Physics Group - Montana State University