E-Print Archive

There are 4249 abstracts currently viewable.


Advanced Search
Main Page Add New E-Print Submitter
News Help/FAQ About Preferences
Manage Key Phrase
* News 04/04/20 * The archive is using a new backend database. This has thrown up a few SQL errors in the last few days. If you have any issues please email adavey@nso.edu with either the number of eprint you are trying to edit or a link to your preprint.

Prediction of Solar Flare Size and Time-to-Flare Using Support Vector Machine Regression View all abstracts by submitter

R.T.James McAteer   Submitted: 2015-11-05 15:44

We study the prediction of solar flare size and time-to-flare using 38 features describing magnetic complexity of the photospheric magnetic field. This work uses support vector regression to formulate a mapping from the 38-dimensional feature space to a continuous-valued label vector representing flare size or time-to-flare. When we consider flaring regions only, we find an average error in estimating flare size of approximately half a geostationary operational environmental satellite (GOES) class. When we additionally consider non-flaring regions, we find an increased average error of approximately 3/4 a GOES class. We also consider thresholding the regressed flare size for the experiment containing both flaring and non-flaring regions and find a true positive rate of 0.69 and a true negative rate of 0.86 for flare prediction. The results for both of these size regression experiments are consistent across a wide range of predictive time windows, indicating that the magnetic complexity features may be persistent in appearance long before flare activity. This is supported by our larger error rates of some 40 hr in the time-to-flare regression problem. The 38 magnetic complexity features considered here appear to have discriminative potential for flare size, but their persistence in time makes them less discriminative for the time-to-flare problem.

Authors: Boucheron, L.E., Al-Ghraibah, A., McAteer, R.T.J.
Projects: GOES X-rays ,SoHO-MDI

Publication Status: ApJ, 2015, 812, 51
Last Modified: 2015-11-06 10:53
Go to main E-Print page  Trigger of a blowout jet in a solar coronal mass ejection associated with a flare  Multi-thermal representation of the kappa-distribution of solar flare electrons and application to simultaneous X-ray and EUV observations  Edit Entry  Download Preprint  Submitter's Homepage Delete Entry 

Go to main E-Print pageGo to main E-Print page.
Previous AbstractPrevious Abstract.
Next AbstractNext Abstract.
Download PreprintDownload Preprint.
Submitter's HomepageSubmitters Homepage.
Edit EntryEdit Entry.
View All Abstracts By SubmitterView all abstracts by submitter.
Delete AbstractDelete abstract.

Latest Entries
Ambipolar diffusion in the Bifrost code
Modeling the quiet Sun cell and network emission with ALMA
Clustering of fast Coronal Mass Ejections during the solar cycles 23 and 24 and implications for CME-CME interactions
Magnetic and Velocity Field Topology in Active Regions of Descending Phase of the Solar Cycle 23
Numerical simulation of solar photospheric jet-like phenomena caused by magnetic reconnection
Solar Flare-CME Coupling Throughout Two Acceleration Phases of a Fast CME
A new method for estimating global coronal wave properties from their interaction with solar coronal holes
Machine-learning approach to identification of coronal holes in solar disk images and synoptic maps
Multilevel Observations of the Oscillations in the First Active Region of the New Cycle
Standing MHD Waves in a Magnetic Slab Embedded in an Asymmetric Magnetic Plasma Environment: Surface Waves
A new facility for airborne solar astronomy: NASA's WB-57 at the 2017 total solar eclipse
MinXSS-2 CubeSat mission overview: Improvements from the successful MinXSS-1 mission
Lyman α Variability During Solar Flares Over Solar Cycle 24 Using GOES-15/EUVS-E
Sunquake with a second-bounce, other sunquakes and emission associated with X9.3 flare of 6 September 2017. II. Proposed interpretation
f-mode strengthening from a localized bipolar subsurface magnetic field
Imaging and spectral study on the null point of a fan-spine structure during a solar flare
Forecasting Solar Cycle 25 Using Deep Neural Networks
An Observational Test of Solar Plasma Heating by Magnetic Flux Cancellation
The Drivers of Active Region Outflows into the Slow Solar Wind
HXR emission from an activated flux rope and subsequent evolution of an eruptive long duration solar flare

Related Pages
MSU Solar Physics.
Max Millennium Science Mail Archive.
Max Millennium Message of the Day Mail Archive.
Max Millennium Flare Catalog

Archive Maintainer
Alisdair Davey

© 2000-2020 Solar Physics Group - Montana State University