E-Print Archive

There are 4507 abstracts currently viewable.


Advanced Search
Main Page Add New E-Print Submitter
News Help/FAQ About Preferences
Manage Key Phrase
Predicting Solar Flares by Data Assimilation in Avalanche Models. I. Model Design and Validation View all abstracts by submitter

Eric Belanger   Submitted: 2007-08-14 13:02

Data assimilation techniques, developed in the last two decades mainly for weather prediction, produce better forecasts by taking advantage of both theoretical/numerical models and real-time observations. In this paper, we explore the possibility of applying the data-assimilation techniques known as 4D-VAR to the prediction of solar flares. We do so in the context of a continuous version of the classical cellular-automaton-based self-organized critical avalanche models of solar flares introduced by Lu and Hamilton (Astrophys. J., 380, L89, 1991). Such models, although a priori far removed from the physics of magnetic reconnection and magneto-hydrodynamical evolution of coronal structures, nonetheless reproduce quite well the observed statistical distribution of flare characteristics. We report here on a large set of data assimilation runs on synthetic energy release time series. Our results indicate that, despite the unpredictable (and unobservable) stochastic nature of the driving/triggering mechanism within the avalanche model, 4D-VAR succeeds in producing optimal initial conditions that reproduce adequately the time series of energy released by avalanches/flares. This is an essential first step towards forecasting real flares.

Authors: Eric Belanger, Alain Vincent, Paul Charbonneau
Projects: None

Publication Status: Accepted in Solar Physics.
Last Modified: 2007-08-16 08:37
Go to main E-Print page  Doppler shift oscillations in solar spicules  On the relationship between coronal waves associated with a CME on 5 March 2000  Edit Entry  Download Preprint  Submitter's Homepage Delete Entry 

Go to main E-Print pageGo to main E-Print page.
Previous AbstractPrevious Abstract.
Next AbstractNext Abstract.
Download PreprintDownload Preprint.
Submitter's HomepageSubmitters Homepage.
Edit EntryEdit Entry.
View All Abstracts By SubmitterView all abstracts by submitter.
Delete AbstractDelete abstract.

Latest Entries
The role and contribution of magnetic fields, characterized via their magnetic flux, to the statistical structuring of the solar atmosphere
Do periods of decayless kink oscillations of solar coronal loops depend on noise?
Automatic detection technique for solar filament oscillations in GONG data
Probing the Density Fine Structuring of the Solar Corona with Comet Lovejoy
Confined plasma transition from the solar atmosphere to the interplanetary medium
Extracting the Heliographic Coordinates of Coronal Rays using Images from WISPR/Parker Solar Probe
Two-spacecraft detection of short-period decayless kink oscillations of solar coronal loops
Genesis and Coronal-jet-generating Eruption of a Solar Minifilament Captured by IRIS Slit-raster Spectra
First detection of transverse vertical oscillation during the expansion of coronal loops
A New Position Calibration Method for MUSER Images
Sigmoid Formation Through Slippage of A Single J-shaped Coronal Loop
MHD Simulation of Homologous Eruptions from Solar Active Region 10930 Caused by Sunspot Rotation
Dropouts of Fully Stripped Ions in the Solar Wind: A Diagnostic for Wave Heating versus Reconnection
Plasma heating and nanoflare caused by slow-mode wave in a coronal loop
The Lyman-α Emission in a C1.4 Solar Flare Observed by the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager aboard Solar Orbiter
Imaging and Spectroscopic Observations of the Dynamic Processes in Limb Solar Flares
Evolution of the critical torus instability height and CME likelihood in solar active regions
A Magnetogram-matching Method for Energizing Magnetic Flux Ropes Toward Eruption
A 2D Model for Coronal Bright Points: Association with Spicules, UV bursts, Surges and EUV Coronal Jets
The relativistic solar particle event on 28 October 2021: Evidence of particle acceleration within and escape from the solar corona

Related Pages
MSU Solar Physics.
Max Millennium Science Mail Archive.
Max Millennium Message of the Day Mail Archive.
Max Millennium Flare Catalog

Archive Maintainer
Alisdair Davey

© 2000-2020 Solar Physics Group - Montana State University