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Reconnection fluxes in eruptive and confined flares and implications for superflares on the Sun View all abstracts by submitter

Astrid Veronig   Submitted: 2017-12-14 08:36

We study the energy release process of a set of 51 flares (32 confined, 19 eruptive) ranging from GOES class B3 to X17. We use Hα filtergrams from Kanzelhöhe Observatory together with SDO HMI and SOHO MDI magnetograms to derive magnetic reconnection fluxes and rates. The flare reconnection flux is strongly correlated with the peak of the GOES 1-8 Å soft X-ray flux (c=0.92, in log-log space), both for confined and eruptive flares. Confined flares of a certain GOES class exhibit smaller ribbon areas but larger magnetic flux densities in the flare ribbons (by a factor of 2). In the largest events, up to 50% of the magnetic flux of the active region (AR) causing the flare is involved in the flare magnetic reconnection. These findings allow us to extrapolate toward the largest solar flares possible. A complex solar AR hosting a magnetic flux of 2 · 1023  Mx, which is in line with the largest AR fluxes directly measured, is capable of producing an X80 flare, which corresponds to a bolometric energy of about 7 · 1032 ergs. Using a magnetic flux estimate of 6 · 1023  Mx for the largest solar AR observed, we find that flares of GOES class ≈X500 could be produced (Ebol ≈ 3 · 1033 ergs). These estimates suggest that the present day's Sun is capable of producing flares and related space weather events that may be more than an order of magnitude stronger than have been observed to date.

Authors: J. Tschernitz, A.M. Veronig, J. Thalmann, J. Hinterreiter, W. Pötzi
Projects: None

Publication Status: Accepted for publication in ApJ
Last Modified: 2017-12-14 13:38
Go to main E-Print page  On the factors determining the eruptive character of solar flares  Studying the transfer of magnetic helicity in solar active regions with the connectivity-based helicity flux density method  Edit Entry  Download Preprint  Delete Entry 

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