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Forecasting the Remaining Duration of an Ongoing Solar Flare View all abstracts by submitter

Jeffrey Reep   Submitted: 2021-07-15 14:20

The solar X-ray irradiance is significantly heightened during the course of a solar flare, which can cause radio blackouts due to ionization of the atoms in the ionosphere. As the duration of a solar flare is not related to the size of that flare, it is not directly clear how long those blackouts can persist. Using a random forest regression model trained on data taken from X-ray light curves, we have developed a direct forecasting method that predicts how long the event will remain above background levels. We test this on a large collection of flares observed with GOES-15, and show that it generally outperforms simple linear regression. This forecast is computationally light enough to be performed in real time, allowing for the prediction to be made during the course of a flare.

Authors: Jeffrey W. Reep & Will T. Barnes
Projects: None

Publication Status: Accepted to Space Weather
Last Modified: 2021-07-19 16:19
Go to main E-Print page  Energetics and 3-D Structure of Elementary Events in Solar Coronal Heating  A fundamental mechanism of solar eruption initiation  Edit Entry  Download Preprint  Delete Entry 

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