E-Print Archive

There are 4414 abstracts currently viewable.


Search:

Advanced Search
Options
Main Page Add New E-Print Submitter
Information
Feedback
News Help/FAQ About Preferences
Manage Key Phrase
Notification
The Solar Memory From Hours to Decades View all abstracts by submitter

Markus J. Aschwanden   Submitted: 2021-07-29 11:43

Waiting time distributions allow us to distinguish at least three different types of dynamical systems, such as (i) linear random processes (with no memory); (ii) nonlinear, avalanche-type, nonstationary Poisson processes (with memory during the exponential growth of the avalanche rise time); and (iii) chaotic systems in the state of a nonlinear limit cycle (with memory during the oscillatory phase). We describe the temporal evolution of the flare rate \lambda(t) ∝ t^p with a polynomial function, which allows us to distinguish linear (p ≈ 1) from nonlinear (p ≳ 2) events. The power law slopes α of observed waiting times (with full solar cycle coverage) cover a range of α =2.1-2.4, which agrees well with our prediction of α = 2.0+1/p = 2.3-2.5. The memory time can also be defined with the time evolution of the logistic equation, for which we find a relationship between the nonlinear growth time τ_G = τrise/(4p) and the nonlinearity index p. We find a nonlinear evolution for most events, in particular for the clustering of solar flares (p=2.2±0.1), partially occulted flare events (p=1.8±0.2), and the solar dynamo (p=2.8±0.5). The Sun exhibits memory on time scales of ≈2 hours to 3 days (for solar flare clustering), 6 to 23 days (for partially occulted flare events), and 1.5 month to 1 year (for the rise time of the solar dynamo).

Authors: Aschwanden, M.J. and Johnson, J.R.
Projects: None

Publication Status: submitted
Last Modified: 2021-08-01 20:58
Go to main E-Print page  A physics-based method that can predict imminent large solar flares  Solar chromosphere heating and generation of plasma outflows by impulsively generated two-fluid Alfvén waves  Edit Entry  Download Preprint  Submitter's Homepage Delete Entry 

Key
Go to main E-Print pageGo to main E-Print page.
Previous AbstractPrevious Abstract.
Next AbstractNext Abstract.
Download PreprintDownload Preprint.
Submitter's HomepageSubmitters Homepage.
Edit EntryEdit Entry.
View All Abstracts By SubmitterView all abstracts by submitter.
Delete AbstractDelete abstract.

Latest Entries
Formation of Magnetic Flux Rope during Solar Eruption. I. Evolution of Toroidal Flux and Reconnection Flux
Stereoscopy of extreme UV quiet Sun brightenings observed by Solar Orbiter/EUI
Solar Flare Effects on the Earth’s Lower Ionosphere
Measurements of Photospheric and Chromospheric Magnetic Field Structures Associated with Chromospheric Heating over a Solar Plage Region
Probing Current Sheet Instabilities from Flare Ribbon Dynamics
Global Nature of Solar Coronal Shock Waves shown by Inconsistency between EUV Waves and Type II Radio Bursts
Solar surges related to UV bursts: Characterization through k-means, inversions and density diagnostics
A revised cone model and its application to non-radial prominence eruptions
Zonal harmonics of solar magnetic field for solar cycle forecast
TESS observations of flares and quasi-periodic pulsations from low mass stars and potential impact on exoplanets
Kink oscillations of coronal loops
First Frequency-Time-Resolved Imaging Spectroscopy Observations of Solar Radio Spikes
Magnetic Flux and Magnetic Non-potentiality of Active Regions in Eruptive and Confined Solar Flares
Observations of shock propagation through turbulent plasma in the solar corona
The Formation and Lifetime of Outflows in a Solar Active Region
Localised acceleration of energetic particles by a weak shock in the solar corona
Stereoscopic Measurements of Coronal Doppler Velocities
Multi-wavelength Observations of a Metric Type-II Event
A physics-based method that can predict imminent large solar flares
The Solar Memory From Hours to Decades

Related Pages
MSU Solar Physics.
Max Millennium Science Mail Archive.
Max Millennium Message of the Day Mail Archive.
Max Millennium Flare Catalog

Archive Maintainer
Alisdair Davey



© 2000-2020 Solar Physics Group - Montana State University