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A physics-based method that can predict imminent large solar flares View all abstracts by submitter

Kanya Kusano   Submitted: 2021-08-05 07:57

Solar flares are highly energetic events in the Sunís corona that affect Earthís space weather. The mechanism that drives the onset of solar flares is unknown, hampering efforts to forecast them, which mostly rely on empirical methods. We present the κ-scheme, a physics-based model to predict large solar flares through a critical condition of magnetohydrodynamic instability, triggered by magnetic reconnection. Analysis of the largest (X-class) flares from 2008 to 2019 (during solar cycle 24) shows that the κ-scheme predicts most imminent large solar flares, with a small number of exceptions for confined flares. We conclude that magnetic twist flux density, close to a magnetic polarity inversion line on the solar surface, determines when and where solar flares may occur and how large they can be.

Authors: Kanya Kusano, Tomoya Iju, Yumi Bamba, Satoshi Inoue
Projects: SDO-HMI

Publication Status: Published in Science
Last Modified: 2021-08-10 09:39
Go to main E-Print page  Multi-wavelength Observations of a Metric Type-II Event  The Solar Memory From Hours to Decades  Edit Entry  Download Preprint  Submitter's Homepage Delete Entry 

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