:Product: 0726RSGA.txt :Issued: 2011 Jul 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region 1260 (N20E45) produced the only C-class event of the period, a C1 flare at 26/0339Z. Region 1260 has grown significantly and is classified as a Dao type spot group. New Region 1261 (N16E74) was numbered today. This region is still rotating onto the visible disk and initial observations indicated a Dho type spot group. Both regions were magnetically simple. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (27-29 July). Both Regions 1260 and 1261 are likely to produce C-class activity, with the remote possibility of an isolated M-class event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (27 July). Days two and three (28-29 July) are expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. The increase in activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Jul 094 Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 095/097/099 90 Day Mean 26 Jul 095 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 005/005-010/012-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/15/15 Minor storm 01/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/15/25 Minor storm 01/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01