:Product: 0728RSGA.txt :Issued: 2011 Jul 28 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1260 (N19E17) produced multiple C-flares during the period, the largest a C5 at 1212Z. Region 1260 increased in magnetic complexity and is classified as a Eac spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification. Region 1261 (N15E49) has exhibited slight rotational motion and is classified a Dko with a Beta magnetic classification. Region 1262 (N16W49) has decayed to a simple Axx group. New Regions 1263 (N18E73) and 1264 (S31E50) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at predominantly low levels with a chance for M-class flares from Region 1260. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the first two days (29-30 July). On day three (31 July) activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels with the chance for active periods due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Jul 107 Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 28 Jul 095 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 005/005-005/005-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/35 Minor storm 01/01/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/40 Minor storm 01/01/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/10