:Product: 0729RSGA.txt :Issued: 2011 Jul 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1261 (N16E33) produced the majority of the C-class flare events. The largest was a C6/1f at 1640Z. Region 1261 appears to be in decay and is classified as Dai spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1260 (N19E03) appears to show separation between the leader and trailing spots and is classified as a Eai spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1263 (N18E59) has been largely quiet and stable as it rotated into view, only managing a low level C-flare. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with a chance for M-class flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 30 July. Unsettled conditions with possible active periods are expected on 31 July-01 August due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. III. Event Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Jul 112 Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 29 Jul 095 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 005/005-012/012-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/35/35 Minor storm 01/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 05/40/40 Minor storm 01/20/20 Major-severe storm 01/10/10