:Product: 0730RSGA.txt :Issued: 2011 Jul 30 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1261 (N17E22), a Dkc spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification, produced an impulsive M9 flare at 0209Z with an associated Tenflare. There appeared to be no CME associated with the event in LASCO imagery. Region 1260 (N19W09) has shown consolidation in its trailer spots and is now classified as a Ehi spot group with a Beta magnetic configuration. Region 1263 (N18E48) has been relatively stable and did not produce any significant flaring during the period. New Region 1265 (N18W41) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with the chance for M-class flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were likely due to a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) associated with the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. ACE signatures indicate a possible weak CIR onset at approximately 0900Z on 30 July. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active from 31 July to 01 August due to effects from the coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 02 August. III. Event Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug Class M 45/45/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Jul 113 Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 30 Jul 095 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 012/012-012/012-007/007 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/15 Minor storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/40/20 Minor storm 20/20/10 Major-severe storm 10/10/01