:Product: 0801RSGA.txt :Issued: 2011 Aug 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region 1261 (N18W08) produced the largest event of the period a C4/1F flare at 01/0732Z. Region 1261 has continued to develop in area and magnetic complexity and is classified as an Fkc type spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Region 1263 (N127E21) has maintained its Beta-Gamma-Delta classification and produced three low level C-class events. Region 1260 (N18W36) and Region 1265 (N17W67) remained stable and quiet, while Region 1264 (S23W07) has decayed to spotless plage. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a slight chance for a major event for the next three days (02-04 August). Region 1261 is the most likely source for a major x-ray event and has a slight chance to produce an energetic proton event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind data observed at the ACE satellite indicated that the coronal hole high speed stream has subsided with wind speeds decreasing from 700 km/s to about 550 km/s during the past 24 hours. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at 1305Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled on day one (02 August) as the effects of the coronal hole high speed stream continues to wane. Days two and three (03-04 August) are expected to be quiet. III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug Class M 60/60/50 Class X 10/10/05 Proton 10/10/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Aug 125 Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 095 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 007/007-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/05/05 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01