:Product: 0802RSGA.txt :Issued: 2011 Aug 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours. Region 1261 (N15W21) produced a long duration M1/1N flare at 02/0619Z with associated Type IV, Type II (estimated speed of 1067 km/s), and Tenflare (220 sfu) radio emissions. LASCO C3 imagery indicated a full halo coronal mass ejection also associated with this event. Region 1261 maintained its Fkc type spot group classification and Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Region 1263 ((N17E08) produced multiple C-class events and maintained its Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration. Region 1260 (N15W21) remained quiet and stable. Region 1265 (N16W80) was quiet as it began to rotate off the visible disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a slight chance for a major event for the next three days (03-05 August). Region 1261 and Region 1263 are both capable of producing a major event and both have a slight chance of producing an energetic proton event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. Solar wind data observed at the ACE satellite indicated a decrease in solar wind speed from 550 km/s to 450 km/s as the effects from the coronal hole high speed stream waned. The GOES 13 satellite observed an enhancement of the 10 MeV protons associated with the periods M1 flare. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (03 August). Day two is expected to be predominately quiet with chance a for isolated active conditions late in the day. Day three (05 August) is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm conditions. The increase in activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of the coronal mass ejection from 02/0616Z. Due to the enhanced environment there is a chance for the 10 MeV protons to cross event thresholds with shock arrival. III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug Class M 65/65/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 15/15/20 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Aug 122 Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 095 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 005/005-012/012-020/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/40/45 Minor storm 01/15/20 Major-severe storm 01/05/10 B. High Latitudes Active 05/40/45 Minor storm 01/15/20 Major-severe storm 01/05/10