:Product: 0804RSGA.txt :Issued: 2011 Aug 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1261 (N15W49) produced a M9/2B at 0357Z. This event had associated Type II and Type IV radio sweeps and a CME with an approximate speed of 2100 km/s in STEREO A COR-2 imagery. Region 1261 has appeared to decay in the southern most trailing spots and is classified as a Dai spot class with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification. Region 1263 (N17W18) has been relatively stable, only managing a few C-class flares. Region 1263 is classified as a Dki spot class with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification. New Region 1266 (N18E38) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Further M-class activity is expected from Region 1261. Region 1263 has the potential for M-class activity as well. There continues to be a chance for isolated major flare activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit crossed the 10 PFU threshold at 0635Z and reached a peak of 80.1 PFU at 1030Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit crossed the 1 PFU threshold at 0510Z and reached a peak of 1.8 PFU at 0740Z. This proton event was associated with the M9 flare at 0357Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at minor to major storm levels with a chance for severe storm periods as the effects of three CMEs are expected to impact the Earths geomagnetic field early on 05 August. Active to minor storm levels are expected on 06 August. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 07 August. III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug Class M 75/75/65 Class X 15/15/10 Proton 95/50/30 PCAF red IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Aug 116 Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 096 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 050/050-030/030-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/30/25 Minor storm 35/30/15 Major-severe storm 50/20/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/30/25 Minor storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 55/30/15