From: "Daryl J. Yentis" Date: January 26, 2012 6:00:10 AM MST To: canfield@mithra.physics.montana.edu Subject: 25JAN12 solar flare events                Max '01  -  EVENT LISTING for JAN 25, 2012    Time (UT)    X-Ray Opt Loca- NOAA      Peak Radio      Associated            Begin  Max  End  Class Imp tion  Region       Flux         Reports                                                       2.7    8.8   15.4                       ******************************************************************************** No events reported ******************************************************************************** :Product: 0125RSGA.txt :Issued: 2012 Jan 25 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2012 IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  As Regions 1401 (N16W66) and 1402 (N26W60) approached the west limb, they exhibited little change over the past 24 hours, as did the remainder of the disk and limb. IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very low to low during the period (26 - 28 January).  A chance for M-class activity exists on 26 - 27 January from Regions 1401 and 1402 before they rotate around the west limb. IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with isolated high latitude major to severe storm intervals.  During the period, ACE solar wind velocities varied between a high of 625 km/s at the beginning, and steadily decreased to a low of near 500 km/s by the end.  The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/- 10 nT through about 25/1000Z and remained weakly south at -1 to -5 nT through the end of the period.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux event was still in progress at the time of this report.  Proton flux levels steadily decayed to end the period near 100 pfu. IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (26 January).  By day two (27 January) and through day three (28 January), field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods.  This increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream expected to move into a geoeffective position.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux event is expected to remain above event levels through 26 January, falling to background levels by 27 January. III.  Event Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan Class M    25/10/01 Class X    01/01/01 Proton     50/01/01 PCAF       in progress IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed           25 Jan 126 Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan  125/120/120 90 Day Mean        25 Jan 143 V.  Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  013/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan  011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  005/005-007/008-007/008 VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan A.  Middle Latitudes Active                10/20/20 Minor storm           01/10/10 Major-severe storm    01/01/01 B.  High Latitudes Active                10/25/25 Minor storm           05/15/15 Major-severe storm    01/05/05