From: "Daryl J. Yentis" Date: January 27, 2012 6:00:08 AM MST To: canfield@mithra.physics.montana.edu Subject: 26JAN12 solar flare events                Max '01  -  EVENT LISTING for JAN 26, 2012    Time (UT)    X-Ray Opt Loca- NOAA      Peak Radio      Associated            Begin  Max  End  Class Imp tion  Region       Flux         Reports                                                       2.7    8.8   15.4                       ******************************************************************************** 0000 0005  0010  C1.5           1402                                        0026 0036  0059  C5.8           1402                                        0140 0149  0200  C7.9           1402                                        0358 0542  0703  C6.4           1402                                        1001 1011  1021  C2.7                                                       2038 2044  2051  C2.8 SF N33W68 1402                      III/1             2155 2202  2210  C1.8                                                       ******************************************************************************** :Product: 0126RSGA.txt :Issued: 2012 Jan 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2012 IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1402 (N29W72) produced several C-class events, the largest a C7 flare at 26/0149Z. The region also produced a long duration C6 flare at 26/0542Z. An associated partial-halo CME was first visible in C2 LASCO imagery at 26/0436Z (plane-of-sky speed approx 1044 km/s). The CME appears to be directed well north of the ecliptic plane and towards the STEREO A spacecraft. It is not expected to be geoeffective. IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event on day one (27 January). Activity is expected to decrease to low levels on days two and three (28-29 January) after Region 1402 rotates around the west limb. IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV Proton event that began at 23/0530Z and reached a maximum value of 6310 pfu at 24/1530Z, is still in progress. IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (27-28 January) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (29 January) as effects from the CH HSS subside. The greater than 10 MeV Proton event is expected to decrease below the 10 pfu threshold early on day one (27 January). III.  Event Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan Class M    10/01/01 Class X    01/01/01 Proton     50/01/01 PCAF       Yellow IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed           26 Jan 128 Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan  120/120/120 90 Day Mean        26 Jan 143 V.  Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  017/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan  006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  007/008-007/008-005/005 VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan A.  Middle Latitudes Active                20/20/10 Minor storm           10/10/01 Major-severe storm    01/01/01 B.  High Latitudes Active                25/25/15 Minor storm           15/15/01 Major-severe storm    05/05/01