From: "Daryl J. Yentis" Date: January 29, 2012 6:00:07 AM MST To: canfield@mithra.physics.montana.edu Subject: 28JAN12 solar flare events                Max '01  -  EVENT LISTING for JAN 28, 2012    Time (UT)    X-Ray Opt Loca- NOAA      Peak Radio      Associated            Begin  Max  End  Class Imp tion  Region       Flux         Reports                                                       2.7    8.8   15.4                       ******************************************************************************** 1530 1534  1540  C1.0           1410                                        ******************************************************************************** :Product: 0128RSGA.txt :Issued: 2012 Jan 28 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2012 IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low. Region 1410 (N18E48) produced a C1 flare at 28/1534Z. New Region 1411 (S26E09) was numbered today and is classified as an Axx-alpha type group. IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (29-31 January). IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 27/1900Z and reached a max of 12 pfu at 27/2140Z, was still in progress at the time of this writing. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 27/1905Z and reached a peak of 796 pfu at 28/0205Z, was also still in progress at the time of this writing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (29 January) as effects from the CH HSS subside. Unsettled to active conditions with a chance for isolated minor storm periods are expected on day two (30 January) due to effects from the CME associated with the X1 flare observed on 27 January. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (31 January) due to residual CME effects. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end by 29/0000Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through day one (29 January) and then gradually decrease below threshold by the end of day two (30 January). III.  Event Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan Class M    01/01/01 Class X    01/01/01 Proton     99/70/20 PCAF       In Progress IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed           28 Jan 115 Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan  115/110/110 90 Day Mean        28 Jan 143 V.  Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan  004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  005/005-014/018-007/008 VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan A.  Middle Latitudes Active                10/40/15 Minor storm           01/15/05 Major-severe storm    01/01/01 B.  High Latitudes Active                15/30/20 Minor storm           05/30/10 Major-severe storm    01/05/01