MAJOR FLARE WATCH DOCUMENTATION

2012 March 5 - 12

Click images to get 1024 x 1024 (HMI) or 2048 x 2048 (NSO)

Note that March 4 - 7 H-alpha images are not the usual GONG images (RCC waited too long to download them)


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Events

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Reports


Notes
Date: Sun, 4 Mar 2012 13:17:54 +0000
MM#009 Default HESSI Target
The target region in the northeast quadrant, now designated NOAA 11429, was the source of an M2.0 flare at 10:29 UT today as well as several C-class events. The region has been classified as having a beta-gamma configuration with a sunspot area of 290 uH. Further C-level activity expected with chance for another M-class flare.
The position of NOAA 11429 on 4-Mar-2012 at 00:30 UT is: N18E62, ( -813", 351" )
Ryan Milligan (QUB)

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Events

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Notes
Date: Mon, 5 Mar 2012 09:49:17 +0000
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
The target region NOAA 11429 was the source of an X1.1 flare at 02:30 UT today. At this time we are implementing a Major Flare Watch campaign. The region has substantially increased in size and is now classified as a beta-gamma-delta region. Further increased activity expected with chance for another >M5 flare.
The position of NOAA 11429 on 5-Mar-2012 at 09:30 UT is: N18E45, ( -653", 379" )
Ryan Milligan (QUB)
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Events

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Date: Tue, 6 Mar 2012 11:19:56 +0000
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Solar activity remains high with NOAA 11429 continuing to produce high C- and low M-class flares. The region appears to be undergoing new flux emergence while retaining its delta configuration, which is due to negative flux encroaching on the positive leader spot. Major Flare Watch conditions remain: further intermediate level activity expected with chance for an
event larger than M5.
The position of NOAA 11429 on 6-Mar-2012 at 11:00 UT is: N17E30, ( -467", 382" )
Ryan Milligan (QUB)
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Date: Wed, 7 Mar 2012 10:46:19 +0000
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
Solar activity remains very high with the target region NOAA 11429 producing an X5.4 flare at 00:02 UT today. The region has grown in size to over 1000 uh and has become highly sheared with its polarity inversion line aligned in the east-west direction. Further C- and M-level activity expected with good chance for another major flare in the next 24-48 hours.
The position of NOAA 11429 on 7-Mar-2012 at 08:00 UT is: N17E24, ( -377", 388" )
Ryan Milligan (QUB)
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Events

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Notes
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2012 11:00:41 +0000
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
NOAA 11429 has remained relatively quiet since the X5.4 flare yesterday. However the region continues to undergo new flux emergence and is now greater than 1200 uh in size. Some of this new flux emergence has resulted in the formation of a large positive island delta near the core of the active region. The region has also become significantly brighter in H-alpha
emission over the past 24 hours and its polarity inversion line remains highly sheared. The combination of these conditions is conducive for the production of another large-scale X-class flare.
The position of NOAA 11429 on 8-Mar-2012 at 10:30 UT is: N17E09, ( -139", 397" )
Ryan Milligan (QUB)
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Events

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Notes
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2012 10:22:57 +0000
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
NOAA 11429 was the source of an M6.3 flare at 03:22 UT today as it crossed the central meridian. The region has begun to show signs of decay with its sunspot area dropping below 1000 uh although it retains its beta-gamma-delta configuration with a highly sheared magnetic inversion line. Good chance of another event of magnitude M5 or greater over the next 24-48 hours.
The position of NOAA 11429 on 9-Mar-2012 at 10:00 UT is: N17W05, ( 82", 398" )
Ryan Milligan (QUB)
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Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2012 14:05:44 +0000
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
NOAA 11429 continues to show signs of decay and has produced several C-class flares since the last message. A new region on the eastern limb was also the source of a C9.7 flare at 19:59 UT yesterday. NOAA 11429 retains its delta configuration and shall continue to be the target region for a further 24 hours. Chance remains for an event greater than M5.
The position of NOAA 11429 on 10-Mar-2012 at 12:00 UT is: N18W20, ( 315", 406" )
Ryan Milligan (QUB)
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Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2012 15:32:51 +0000
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
NOAA 11429 was the source of an M8.4 flare at 17:15 UT yesterday. The region remains largely unchanged in terms of size and complexity. We shall extend the Major Flare Watch campaign for a further 24 hours due to the possibility of another high M-class event.
The position of NOAA 11429 on 11-Mar-2012 at 14:00 UT is: N18W34, ( 515", 392" )
Ryan Milligan (QUB)
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Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2012 10:58:37 +0000
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
NOAA 11429 has remained relatively quiescent since the last message. The region is still showing signs of decay but retains its beta-gamma-delta        configuration. There is also a long filament channel extending along the neutral line. Major Flare Watch conditions shall remain in effect due to the possibility of another mid-to-high M-class flare.
The position of NOAA 11429 on 12-Mar-2012 at 08:00 UT is: N18W43, ( 627", 381" )
Ryan Milligan (QUB)
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Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2012 13:44:34 +0000
MM#009 Default HESSI Target
NOAA 11429 has diminished considerably in both size and complexity as it    nears the western limb and is now classified as a beta-gamma region. The region has only produced two low C-class flares in the past 24 hours. At this time we are ending the Major Flare Watch campaign as the chance of another major flare is unlikely. However, NOAA 11429 shall continue to be the target region as intermediate level events are still possible before west limb passage.
The position of NOAA 11429 on 13-Mar-2012 at 12:00 UT at UT is: N18W57, ( 771", 359" )
Ryan Milligan (QUB)
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Events

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Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2012 10:23:16 +0000
MM#009 Default HESSI Target
The target region NOAA 11429 was the source of an M7.9 flare at 17:12 UT yesterday as a result of possible flux emergence. The region retains its beta-gamma configuration and may produce another M-class flare before west limb passage.
The position of NOAA 11429 on 14-Mar-2012 at 08:00 UT is: N18W67, ( 845", 340" )
Ryan Milligan (QUB)