MAJOR FLARE WATCH DOCUMENTATION

2012 May 09 - 12

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Events

Region
Reports


Notes
Date: Mon, 7 May 2012 11:16:25 +0100
MM#009 Default HESSI Target
NOAA 11476 produced two more M1 flares, as well as several C-class flares, since the last message. The region is classified as a beta-gamma/F-type region with a sunspot area >750uH. Steep magnetic gradients around the negative leader spot is likely to result in further C-level activity with a good chance for additional low M-class flares.
The position of NOAA 11476 on 7-May-2012 at 10:00 UT is:
N10E57, ( -790", 196" )
Ryan Milligan (QUB)
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Events

Region
Reports


Notes
Date: Tue, 8 May 2012 09:56:45 +0100
MM#009 Default HESSI Target
NOAA 11471 was the source of an unexpected M1.9 flare at 14:03 UT yesterday. The target region NOAA 11476 has remained relatively quiescent since the last message but continues to show signs of flux emergence. The region retains its beta-gamma/F-type configuration and has the potential to produce further low-to-intermediate level activity.
The position of NOAA 11476 on 8-May-2012 at 09:00 UT is: N10E43, ( -638", 206" )
Ryan Milligan (QUB)

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Events

Region
Reports


Notes
Date: Wed, 9 May 2012 11:26:27 +0100
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
The target region NOAA 11476 was the source of an M1.4 flare at 13:02 UT yesterday. The region now has an area of almost 1000 uh, and is classified as a beta-gamma-delta region due to emerging positive flux within the negative leader spot. Bright H-alpha emission is visible near the location of flux emergence and the leader spot is beginning to show signs of
rotation. At this time we are implementing a Major Flare Watch campaign due to the increased probability of an M5 flare or larger over the next 24-48 hours.
The position of NOAA 11476 on 9-May-2012 at 10:00 UT is: N11E29, ( -459", 228" )
Ryan Milligan (QUB)
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Events

Region
Reports


Notes
Date: Thu, 10 May 2012 10:16:54 +0100
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
NOAA 11476 has produced three ~M5 flares in the past 24 hours. The region continues to show signs of flux emergence and remains classified as a beta-gamma-delta region. The polarity inversion line within the leader spot has become highly sheared due to the sunspot's rotation. Major Flare Watch shall remain in effect with further >M5 level activity expected, and the
possibility of an X-class flare.
The position of NOAA 11476 on 10-May-2012 at 09:00 UT is: N10E17, ( -271", 215" )
Ryan Milligan (QUB)
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Events

Region
Reports


Notes
Date: Fri, 11 May 2012 09:50:56 +0100
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
NOAA 11476 has produced multiple C-level events over the past 24 hours, as well as an M1.7 flare at 20:20 UT yesterday. The region has slowed in terms of growth but retains a sunspot area >1000 uh and a beta-gamma-delta configuration. The polarity inversion line is aligned in an almost east-west direction and there are signs of negative flux emergence within the southern positive polarity region. The chance remains for a flare of magnitude M5 or greater as the region crosses the central meridian.
The position of NOAA 11476 on 11-May-2012 at 09:00 UT is: N12E03, ( -45", 247" )
Ryan Milligan (QUB)
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Events

Region
Reports


Notes
Date: Sat, 12 May 2012 14:15:36 +0200
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
NOAA 11476 remains unchanged in terms of its size and complexity and has only produced C-level activity over the past 24 hours, the largest being a C6.1 flare at 17:31 UT yesterday. The region still has the potential to produce another large M-class flare, particularly in the event of new flux emergence, and so the Major Flare Watch shall remain in effect for a further 24 hours.
The position of NOAA 11476 on 12-May-2012 at 07:00 UT is: N11W09, ( 146", 229" )
Ryan Milligan (QUB)
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Events

Region
Reports


Notes
Date: Sun, 13 May 2012 08:37:51 -0400
MM#009 Default HESSI Target
NOAA 11476 is now in decay and begun to lose complexity. The region continues to produce C-level activity, the largest of which was a C7.0 flare at 07:21 UT today. At this time we are ending the Major Flare Watch campaign. Further C-level activity expected with chance for an isolated low M-class flare.
The position of NOAA 11476 on 13-May-2012 at 05:00 UT is: N11W21, ( 335", 224" )
Ryan Milligan (QUB)