MAJOR FLARE WATCH DOCUMENTATION

2012 November 21 - 22

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Events

Region
Reports


Notes
Date: Tue, 20 Nov 2012 08:39:02 -0800
MM#009 Default HESSI Target
NOAA 1618 continues in growth phase. The region is a cluster  of E-W aligned regions forming a single extended F-type/beta-gamma
sunspot group. 1618 was the source of C-class activity since the  last message. The largest event in the past 24 hours was an M1.7 at 11/20/12:38 UT. Its source was a region beyond the northwestern limb. C-class events expected with the chance of an isolated M-class event in the next 24 hour period.
The position of NOAA 1618 on November 20 at 14:00 UT is: N09E16 (Solar X = -266", Solar Y = 118")
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)

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Events

Region
Reports


Notes
Date: Wed, 21 Nov 2012 08:50:37 -0800
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
NOAA 1618 has developed rapidly increasing its sunspot count, sunspot area, and magnetic complexity. 1618 is currently a large E-type/beta-gamma sunspot group with a magnetic delta
configuration located within its central portion. 1618 was the source of 3 M-class events since the last message. The largest was an M3.5 at 11/21/15:30 UT. At this time we are implementing Max Millennium coordinated observing plan #003 (Region Likely To Produce A Major Flare). A major flare =/>M5 is possible in the next 24 to 48 hours. There is a slight chance of an X-class event as well if 1618 continues in strong growth phase.
The position of NOAA 1618 on November 21 at 14:00 UT is: N08E06 (Solar X = -100", Solar Y = 101")
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
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Events

Region
Reports


Notes
Date: Thu, 22 Nov 2012 08:54:37 -0800
MM#003 Major Flare Watch
NOAA 1618 has decayed especially within its central portion where the main delta configuration has broken apart. There is a weaker delta located in the trailing area of the region's E-type/beta-gamma-delta sunspot group. 1618 only managed to produce minor C-class activity since the last message. We'll continue the MFW for the next 24 hour period. There is still a chance of an isolated event =/>M5.
The position of NOAA 1618 on November 22 at 14:00 UT is: N09W07 (Solar X = 117", Solar Y = 120")
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)
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20121123_160000_M_1k.jpg
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Events

Region
Reports


Notes
Date: Fri, 23 Nov 2012 08:32:45 -0800
MM#009 Default HESSI Target
NOAA 1618 continues in decay phase. It was the source of only minor C- and B-class events in the past 24 hours. 1618 is currently classified as an E-type/beta-gamma region. B- and C-class events probable with a slight chance of an isolated M-class event in the next 24 hours.
The position of NOAA 1618 on November 23 at 14:00 UT is: N08W21 (Solar X = 346", Solar Y = 107")
Bill Marquette (Helio Research)