Do I call a GFW? OBSOLETE"

Do I Call a Great Flare Watch?
OBSOLETE: Follow "Do I Call a Major Flare Watch?"

Introduction.

For the purpose of calling a Great Flare Watch, "Great Flares" are defined as either:

Flares with Fermi LAT nuclear-line or high-energy gamma-ray emission that extends above 50 MeV, which are typically of GOES X (and high M) class, and are associated with fast and wide CMEs, or
Exceptionally large flares (for this cycle), with GOES classification > X5.

If either of the following criteria are met, call a Great Flare Watch.

Active region has produced a flare that is large (typically GOES high-M or X-class) and is associated with Fermi LAT nuclear-line or high-energy gamma-ray emission, typically with a fast and broad CME (if a region produced one such flare, it will probably produce at least one more). To determine whether a large flare is associated with Fermi LAT nuclear-line or high-energy gamma-ray emission contact Gerry Share, who will consult with the Fermi LAT team.
Active region has an area >~1000 micro-hemispheres and is classified "beta-gamma-delta", and in addition has an "Island Delta" sunspot configuration with the following properties, of which the first three are most important:

Within the common penumbra there is dominant umbra, usually of p polarity, two or more surrounding umbrae of opposite polarity, and additional surrounding umbrae of p polarity.
The polarity structure is typically inverted, i.e., the westernmost umbra is f polarity.
The umbrae making up the configuration emerge together, i.e., the configuration does not form by merging or successive emergence of separate bipoles.
The common penumbra is surrounded by weaker flux whose polarity is opposite that of the dominant umbra. The weaker flux is typically the residual of a previous AR

Reference material:

Sammis_Tang_Zirin_2000_AR_Area_Dependence.pdf

Version of February 26, 2015