Do I Call a Great Flare Watch?
OBSOLETE: Follow "Do I Call a Major Flare Watch?"


Introduction.  

For the purpose of calling a Great Flare Watch, "Great Flares" are defined as either:
  1. Flares with Fermi LAT nuclear-line or high-energy gamma-ray emission that extends above 50 MeV, which are typically of GOES X (and high M) class, and are associated with fast and wide CMEs, or
  2. Exceptionally large flares (for this cycle), with GOES classification > X5.
If either of the following criteria are met, call a Great Flare Watch.
  1. Active region has produced a flare that is large (typically GOES high-M or X-class) and is associated with Fermi LAT nuclear-line or high-energy gamma-ray emission, typically with a fast and broad CME (if a region produced one such flare, it will probably produce at least one more). To determine whether a large flare is associated with Fermi LAT nuclear-line or high-energy gamma-ray emission contact Gerry Share, who will consult with the Fermi LAT team.

  2. Active region has an area  >~1000 micro-hemispheres and is classified "beta-gamma-delta", and in addition has an "Island Delta" sunspot configuration with the following properties, of which the first three are most important:

Reference material:

Sammis_Tang_Zirin_2000_AR_Area_Dependence.pdf

Version of February 26, 2015