Do I Call a Major Flare Watch?

INTRODUCTION.  


For Major Flare Watch purposes:.
SECTION I: ON THE DISK.

Spot group area.
If ANY of the Criteria listed below are met, call a Major Flare Watch.

Criterion #1. A major flare has occured on the disk (if a region produced one big flare, it will probably produce at least one more).
Criterion #2. Large island delta configuration -  even better if the region is reversed polarity. Bright H-alpha plage (much brighter than normal plage, perhaps twice that of the quiet chromosphere) will be present, typically obscuring umbrae or running along the polarity inversion line. 
Kanzelhohe Observatory
Optical Solar Patrol Network  (Click on "GONG H-alpha image")
http://www.ct.astro.it/sun/
http://www.bbso.njit.edu/  (Go to "Data / Latest Images")
http://bass2000.obspm.fr/home.php

Criterion #3. Large beta-gamma-delta configuration with bright H-alpha plage and better still if reversed polarity. Bright H-alpha along the neutral line is needed.   
Criterion #4. Elongated umbrae in pairs of opposite polarity in a large sunspot group, even if the umbrae are not a delta configuration, if vector magnetograms reveal strong shear along the strong-field part of the polarity inversion line.
Criterion #5. Emerging Flux Region (EFR) coming up within an existing large sunspot group if the leader spots of the EFR are adjacent to the existing group's trailing spots or vice-versa.

Criterion #6. Rapidly moving sunspots - sunspot(s) moving towards and/or into an opposite polarity spot or parallel to the polarity inversion line (shearing motion) in a large sunspot group.
SECTION II: ON THE LIMB.

If ANY of the Criteria listed below are met, call a Major Flare Watch.

Criterion #1. A major flare has occured on the limb (if a region produced one big flare, it will probably produce at least one more).
Criterion #2. A partially occulted M flare has occurred on the East limb, accompanied by a NSO/SP CORONALERT message indicating Ca XV (5694 Angstrom) emission at an extremely high level (indicated by ***) at a date and limb location relevant to the flare.
Criterion #3. A partially occulted M flare has occurred on the West limb, accompanied by a CORONALERT at the *** level on the West limb and appropriate latitude range or a recent beta/gamma/delta magnetic classification or a history of M flare activity when the region was on the disk.

REFERENCE MATERIAL.

Moore_Hagyard_Davis_1987_Strong_Shear.pdf

Sammis_Tang_Zirin_2000_AR_Area_Dependence.pdf

Zirin_Marquette_1991_BEARALERT_paper.pdf