:Product: 19960102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jan 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 002 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 JAN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  THE DISK NOW HAS
THREE SPOTTED REGIONS.  REGION 7934 (S08W60) RE-EMERGED THIS
PERIOD AS A SINGLE SPOT AXX ALPHA GROUP WHILE REGION 7935
(N11W15) DECAYED FROM A 4-SPOT BXO BETA TO A 2-SPOT AXX ALPHA.
REGION 7937 (S08E35) SHOWED NO CHANGE AS A SINGLE SPOT AXX
ALPHA GROUP.  THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMB INDICATED NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VERY LOW LEVELS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  ISOLATED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED
AT HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS DURING THE PERIOD 02/1200-1800UT.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT NORMAL TO
MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 JAN-05 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 JAN  075
PREDICTED   03 JAN-05 JAN  075/075/075
90 DAY MEAN        02 JAN  075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 01 JAN  005/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JAN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JAN-05 JAN  005/005-005/005-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 JAN-05 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01