:Product: 19960103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jan 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 003 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 JAN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW BY VIRTUE OF A C1/SF FLARE
AT 03/1708Z IN NEW REGION 7938 (N12W15). THIS REGION PRODUCED A
SERIES OF B-CLASS FLARES AS WELL. THIS FAST GROWING SPOT GROUP
IS THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 7938 HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF PRODUCING
FURTHER C-CLASS FLARES AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. HIGH LATITUDES SAW A SHORT PERIOD
OF MINOR STORMING AROUND 03/1230Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS, THEN
MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 JAN-06 JAN
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 JAN  081
PREDICTED   04 JAN-06 JAN  082/082/080
90 DAY MEAN        03 JAN  075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 02 JAN  007/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JAN  009/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JAN-06 JAN  005/005-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 JAN-06 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01


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