:Product: 19960104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jan 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 004 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 JAN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A SERIES OF TWENTY
UNCORRELATED B-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS WERE DECTECTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS, BUT NONE WERE CORRELATED WITH OPTICAL FLARES. REGION
7938 (N12W27) CONTINUED TO GROW INTO A DAI SPOT GROUP, BUT
REMAINS MAGNETICALLY SIMPLE. NEW REGION 7939 (N04E06) WAS
NUMBERED TODAY. THIS BXO GROUP ALSO SHOWS FAIR GROWTH POTENTIAL.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 7938 SHOWS FAIR C-CLASS FLARE POTENTIAL
AND HAS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. REGION
7939 HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF C-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 JAN-07 JAN
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 JAN  086
PREDICTED   05 JAN-07 JAN  088/088/088
90 DAY MEAN        04 JAN  075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 03 JAN  008/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JAN  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JAN-07 JAN  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 JAN-07 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01


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