:Product: 19960105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jan 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 005 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 JAN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, DUE TO A SINGLE CORRELATED
C1/SF FLARE WHICH ERRUPTED FROM REGION 7938 (N12W41) AT 0356Z.
IN ADDITION, THREE CORRELATED B-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS WERE DETECTED
FROM REGION 7938, AND A SINGLE CORRELATED B-CLASS X-RAY BURST
WAS DETECTED FROM UNSPOTTED REGION 7937 (S08W04).  THE TWO
SPOTTED REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK CONTINUED TO
GROW, WITH REGION 7938 NOW AT 270 MILLIONTHS, AND REGION 7939
AT 140 MILLIONTHS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW, WITH REGION 7938 CONTINUING TO OFFER FAIR
POTENTIAL FOR C-CLASS FLARE EVENTS, AS WELL AS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.  REGION 7939 CONTINUES
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF C-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH TWO ISOLATED PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 JAN-08 JAN
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 JAN  085
PREDICTED   06 JAN-08 JAN  086/086/085
90 DAY MEAN        05 JAN  075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 04 JAN  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JAN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JAN-08 JAN  005/005-005/005-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 JAN-08 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01


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