:Product: 19960106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 006 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 JAN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. FIVE UNCORRELATED
B-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS WERE DETECTED. REGION 7938 (N12W54) WAS
STABLE AND QUIET. REGION 7939 (N03W21) SHOWED SLIGHT DECAY. NO
NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. BOTH SPOTTED REGIONS HAVE A CHANCE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 7938 STILL HAS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 JAN-09 JAN
CLASS M    05/05/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 JAN  083
PREDICTED   07 JAN-09 JAN  082/082/082
90 DAY MEAN        06 JAN  075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 05 JAN  007/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JAN  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JAN-09 JAN  005/005-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 JAN-09 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01


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