:Product: 19960113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jan 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 013 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 JAN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE ARE NO
NUMBERED REGIONS ON THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW. THERE ARE NO REGIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON 14 JANUARY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS. THE CAUSE OF THIS ENHANCED ACTIVITY HAS NOT
BEEN DETERMINED. THERE WERE NO WELL POSITIONED CORONAL HOLES
OR ANY OBSERVED CME THAT COULD BE CORRELATED TO THIS
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD DISTURBANCE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS AT ALL LATITUDES
THROUGHOUT DAY ONE OF THE FORECAST. MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED ON DAYS TWO AND THREE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A  FEW PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS BEING
OBSERVED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 JAN-16 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 JAN  069
PREDICTED   14 JAN-16 JAN  073/073/070
90 DAY MEAN        13 JAN  075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 12 JAN  010/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JAN  021/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JAN-16 JAN  015/015-010/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 JAN-16 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/30/15
MINOR STORM           20/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                55/30/15
MINOR STORM           20/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/01/01


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