:Product: 19960115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 015 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 JAN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED VERY LOW. THE DISK IS
VIRTUALLY FEATURELESS AND YOHKOH DATA SHOW NO REGIONS
APPROACHING THE EAST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
AT VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED BETWEEN MINOR STORM AND QUIET
LEVELS. THE TIME FROM 14/2100-15/0300Z WAS THE MOST
DISTURBED PERIOD. RECENT SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE A CORONAL
HOLE STREAM IS NOW IN THE EARTH'S VICINITY. WIND DATA FROM
13-14 JAN HAD A CORONAL MASS EJECTION SIGNATURE. THE SOURCE
CORONAL HOLE OF THE CURRENT FLOW IS NOT DISCERNIBLE IN
X-RAY OR INFRARED IMAGERY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. ISOLATED MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 JAN-18 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 JAN  070
PREDICTED   16 JAN-18 JAN  070/070/071
90 DAY MEAN        15 JAN  075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 14 JAN  024/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JAN  013/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JAN-18 JAN  012/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 JAN-18 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           20/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/15/01


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