:Product: 19960116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 016 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 JAN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. NO SPOTS OR
SIGNIFICANT PLAGES WERE VISIBLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND
VELOCITY DROPPED TO APPROXIMATELY 530 KM/S ON 16 JAN.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES WERE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. A SMALL CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN LATE ON 19 JAN OR EARLY ON 20 JAN.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 JAN-19 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 JAN  070
PREDICTED   17 JAN-19 JAN  070/071/072
90 DAY MEAN        16 JAN  074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 15 JAN  015/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JAN  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JAN-19 JAN  005/005-005/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 JAN-19 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/30
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01


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