:Product: 19960117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jan 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 017 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 JAN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. A SMALL REGION
IS ABOUT TO APPEAR AT THE EAST LIMB JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR.
ANOTHER SMALL REGION IS EMERGING NEAR S07E14.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES WERE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL LATE ON 19 JAN OR EARLY
ON 20 JAN. AFTER THAT TIME, UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OBSERVED IN RESPONSE TO A CORONAL HOLE NOW IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SUN. MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE
AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 JAN-20 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 JAN  070
PREDICTED   18 JAN-20 JAN  071/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        17 JAN  074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 16 JAN  008/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JAN  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JAN-20 JAN  005/010-010/010-015/028
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 JAN-20 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/25
MINOR STORM           05/10/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/20
MINOR STORM           05/15/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/10


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