:Product: 19960118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jan 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 018 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 JAN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 7941
(S07W01) EMERGED ON 17 JAN AND BECAME SPOTLESS DURING THE
PERIOD. A SMALL PLAGE REGION ROTATED ONTO THE DISK AT S08E80.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
AT VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. SOME SITES
EXPERIENCED UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS IN THE 18/0300-
0900Z PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES WERE MODERATE TO
HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL LATE ON 19 JAN OR EARLY
ON 20 JAN IN RESPONSE TO A RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 20-21 JAN.
MINOR STORM INTERVALS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON 22 JAN.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 JAN-21 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 JAN  071
PREDICTED   19 JAN-21 JAN  072/072/073
90 DAY MEAN        18 JAN  074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 17 JAN  012/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JAN  009/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JAN-21 JAN  012/015-015/025-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 JAN-21 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/25
MINOR STORM           15/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/15/15


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