:Product: 19960119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 019 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 JAN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED VERY LOW, WITH NO SPOTTED
REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH A SINGLE ACTIVE INTERVAL
RECORDED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES
WERE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS BY
19 JAN, AND COULD DISPLAY ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORM
ACTIVITY IN RESPONSE TO A RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 JAN-22 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 JAN  071
PREDICTED   20 JAN-22 JAN  072/072/073
90 DAY MEAN        19 JAN  074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 18 JAN  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JAN  008/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JAN-22 JAN  015/028-015/022-012/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 JAN-22 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           20/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/30
MINOR STORM           20/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/15/15


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