:Product: 19960120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jan 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 020 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 JAN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE NO SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VERY LOW LEVELS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. AT 0900 UT ON 20 JANUARY, ACTIVE
TO MINOR STORM LEVELS OCCURRED AT ALL LATITUDE. THIS WAS
THE ONLY TIME DURING THIS SUMMARY PERIOD ENHANCED ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ON THE FIRST DAY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECASTED ENHANCEMENT OF THE
FIELDS ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A WELL POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. QUIET
TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 JAN-23 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 JAN  071
PREDICTED   21 JAN-23 JAN  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        20 JAN  074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 19 JAN  009/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JAN  017/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JAN-23 JAN  020/020-015/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 JAN-23 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/35/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                55/35/25
MINOR STORM           20/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/01


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