:Product: 19960121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 021 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 JAN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7942 (NO1W22)
WAS NUMBERED TO DAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
AT VERY LOW LEVELS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE UNSETTLED
PERIODS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE CORONAL HOLE'S TRAILING
EDGE PASSES THROUGH GEO-EFFECTIVE POSITIONING ON THE DISK.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 JAN-24 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 JAN  072
PREDICTED   22 JAN-24 JAN  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        21 JAN  074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 20 JAN  010/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JAN  006/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JAN-24 JAN  010/015-010/012-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 JAN-24 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/20/10
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/01/01


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