:Product: 19960201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Feb 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 032 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 FEB 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7944 (N08W70)
GREW SLOWLY DURING THE PERIOD TO A C-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP. THE
REGION PRODUCED OCCASIONAL B-CLASS FLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE VERY LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED C-CLASS
EVENT FROM REGION 7944 OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS
OBSERVED AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT EXCEEDED 1000 PFU
DURING PART OF THE DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 FEB-04 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 FEB  075
PREDICTED   02 FEB-04 FEB  075/074/073
90 DAY MEAN        01 FEB  074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 31 JAN  008/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 FEB  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 FEB-04 FEB  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 FEB-04 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01