:Product: 19960208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Feb 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 039 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 FEB 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED VERY LOW.  A NEW AXX SPOT
GROUP (SN03, S13W10) WAS REPORTED DURING THE PERIOD, BUT NOT
CONFIRMED WITH A SECOND SIGHTING.  A LARGE FILAMENT IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF ACTIVITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH AN ISOLATED UNSETTLED INTERVAL
OCCURING DURING THE PERIOD 07/2100-2400Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 FEB-11 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 FEB  068
PREDICTED   09 FEB-11 FEB  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        08 FEB  074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 07 FEB  009/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 FEB  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 FEB-11 FEB  008/005-008/010-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 FEB-11 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01