:Product: 19960210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 041 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 FEB 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. EXCEPT FOR A LARGE
QUIET FILAMENT AT N45E03, THE ENTIRE VISIBLE DISK IS VIRTUALLY
BLANK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  HIGH LATITUDES
WERE AT QUIET LEVELS UNTIL THE COMMENCEMENT OF ACTIVE AND
MINOR STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE 10/1200-1500Z TIME INTERVAL.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH INTERMITTENT ACTIVE
PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS AT ALL
LATITUDES ON DAY THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 FEB-13 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 FEB  070
PREDICTED   11 FEB-13 FEB  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        10 FEB  073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 09 FEB  007/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 FEB  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 FEB-13 FEB  008/010-008/008-010/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 FEB-13 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01