:Product: 19960211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 042 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 FEB 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW, WITH THE ENTIRE SUN
CONTINUING TO BE VERY QUIET.  A STABLE FILAMENT AT N43W20 IS
THE ONLY NOTABLE FEATURE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS AT
MIDDLE LATITUDES AND QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH
LATITUDES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  A SINGLE MAJOR STORM
INTERVAL WAS RECORDED AT ANCHORAGE DURING THE PERIOD
11/0900-1200Z.  AN INCREASE IN SOLAR WIND SPEED OF APPROX.
200 KM/S (400 TO 600 KM/S) WAS DETECTED BY THE WIND
SPACECRAFT BETWEEN 10/1600Z AND 11/1600Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FALLING
OFF TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FOLLOWING TWO DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 FEB-14 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 FEB  070
PREDICTED   12 FEB-14 FEB  070/070/071
90 DAY MEAN        11 FEB  073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 10 FEB  012/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 FEB  018/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 FEB-14 FEB  010/015-010/010-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 FEB-14 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/15
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01