:Product: 19960212RSGA.txt :Issued: 1996 Feb 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 043 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 FEB 1996 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WERE NO EVENTS NOTED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. MID LATITUDES SAW A SHORT PERIOD OF ACTIVE LEVELS ABOUT 12/0900Z. HIGH LATITUDES RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM FROM 12/0600-1500Z. CAUSE OF THIS INTER- MITTENT ACTIVITY IS UNKNOWN. GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX APPROACHED EVENT THRESHHOLD ABOUT 12/1500Z BUT FELL SHORT. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LATITUDES MAY SEE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 FEB-15 FEB CLASS M 01/01/01 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 12 FEB 069 PREDICTED 13 FEB-15 FEB 070/070/070 90 DAY MEAN 12 FEB 073 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 FEB 018/018 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 FEB 013/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 FEB-15 FEB 010/007-010/007-010/010 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 FEB-15 FEB A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 20/15/15 MINOR STORM 10/10/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 20/15/15 MINOR STORM 15/10/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/01/01