:Product: 19960213RSGA.txt :Issued: 1996 Feb 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 044 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 FEB 1996 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WAS NO DETECTED ACTIVITY OF NOTE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW. THERE ARE NO ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. A PERIOD OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORMING OCCURRED JUST BEFORE 13/0900Z AT ALL LATITUDES. THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HOURS REMAINED AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 FEB-16 FEB CLASS M 01/01/01 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 13 FEB 069 PREDICTED 14 FEB-16 FEB 070/070/070 90 DAY MEAN 13 FEB 073 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 FEB 013/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 FEB 011/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 FEB-16 FEB 010/007-010/010-010/012 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 FEB-16 FEB A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 15/15/15 MINOR STORM 10/10/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 15/15/15 MINOR STORM 10/10/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01