:Product: 19960214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 045 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 FEB 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE ARE NO SPOTTED
REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. DAY
THREE SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED AS A NEW CORONAL HOLE MOVES
INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 FEB-17 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 FEB  069
PREDICTED   15 FEB-17 FEB  070/070/072
90 DAY MEAN        14 FEB  073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 13 FEB  013/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 FEB  016/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 FEB-17 FEB  010/010-010/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 FEB-17 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05