:Product: 19960215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 046 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 FEB 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WAS NO ACTIVITY
NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. NEW REGION 7945 (N06W05), AN AXX
SPOTTED REGION, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT DAY, THEN
MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH LATITUDES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
LEVELS ON DAYS 2 AND 3 AS A RECURRENT, BUT WEAK, CORONAL HOLE
MOVES INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 FEB-18 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 FEB  069
PREDICTED   16 FEB-18 FEB  070/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        15 FEB  073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 14 FEB  016/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 FEB  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 FEB-18 FEB  010/010-015/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 FEB-18 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05