:Product: 19960216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Feb 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 047 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 FEB 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK IS AGAIN
SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED THE NEXT TWO DAYS. QUIET
CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE ON DAY 3.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 FEB-19 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 FEB  070
PREDICTED   17 FEB-19 FEB  070/070/072
90 DAY MEAN        16 FEB  073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 15 FEB  009/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 FEB  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 FEB-19 FEB  010/010-010/012-005/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 FEB-19 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/15
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01